What do forecasters, bookmakers, artificial intelligence, investment bankers, and your friends have in common? Everyone tries to learn how to predict the winner of the FIFA Men’s World Cup.
And the intentions behind it also vary. Bookmakers make a lot of money from people whose guesses turn out to be wrong.
Forecasting models
Financial institutions want to demonstrate the accuracy of general forecasting models that predict markets. But the FIFA world cup in Qatar is so uncertain that even the capabilities of their models suffer.
The same logic applies to so-called ‘Tantric’ figures, such as Athos Salome of Brazil. They claim that they predicted covid-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. By predicting the correct football results, their ‘powers’ are in a way a seal of approval.
And let’s not forget the expert panels of players and coaches who are served by media organizations around the world. Obviously, they are also often wrong.
What they all have in common is the immense global appeal of the World Cup as it is the biggest tournament in the world’s most popular sport. FIFA estimates that five billion people will watch the 2022 World Cup matches in Qatar.
Professor Robert Simmons, an economist at Lancaster University in the UK, says about the FIFA world cup winner: that gambling is linked to the human desire for gratification. Even if it results in excitement. or financial gain, even if no money is involved.
Here’s the irony that the FIFA World Cup is not a completely unpredictable tournament either. But the defeat of Argentina by Saudi Arabia and Germany’s defeat by Japan has shown. How difficult it can be to act on a prediction.
Keep this in mind and look at these methods. Through this, people make predictions of the FIFA world cup winner no matter how wrong they are.
